India Charting a Sustainable Future amid Climate Change

Dr Yogesh Gokhale

The 28th meeting of the Conference of Parties (COP 28) for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is under way in Dubai from 30th November to 12th December 2023. The global challenge lies in managing the rise in temperature between 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius, resulting from climate change induced by historical and contemporary economic development processes worldwide. Since the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, efforts have been made to address this issue through voluntary commitments to reduce carbon emissions, contributions to funding mechanisms like the Green Climate Fund and Loss and Damage Fund, and financial support via bilateral and multilateral channels. The increased consumption of energy from the onset of industrialisation to the present day, coupled with intensified land-use changes for economic purposes, has led to the excessive accumulation of Greenhouse Gases in the atmosphere. Consequently, a dual strategy is required to address climate change by reducing Greenhouse Gas emissions and adapting to its impacts. India is well-positioned to play a significant role in both aspects, leveraging its abundant natural resources and traditional lifestyle.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) holds the largest share among Greenhouse Gases and consequently plays a significant role in climate change. However, CO2 also presents substantial opportunities for reduction through processes like photosynthesis by trees, allowing for its measured sequestration for extended periods. As part of its strategy, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has introduced the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), forming a carbon market that encourages the planned sequestration of CO2 through reforestation and afforestation projects. The CDM enables emitters to acquire measured sequestered units of CO2, commonly known as 'carbon credits,' under the Kyoto Protocol since 2001. This initiative has led to the emergence of Afforestation, Reforestation, and Rejuvenation (ARR) CDM projects in various countries, with China and India contributing the most to the 60 global ARR projects. While this is a positive development, the current number of carbon sequestration projects is insufficient to meet the demand. Concurrently, Voluntary Carbon Markets have been evolving since 2000, promoting ARR projects on private lands at smaller scales in over 60 countries, in contrast to national level CDM projects in approximately a dozen countries.

India faces a substantial demand for industrial timber and furniture, leading to an annual import of timber worth over Rs. 396 billion. Despite this, our agroforestry plantations cover more than 80% of the domestic requirements, spanning 25 million hectares. With approximately 150 million hectares of farmland and over 200 million hectares of Culturable NonForest Areas throughout the country, there is a significant opportunity for agroforestry. By investing in plantation and afforestation, it is possible to leverage over 350 million hectares across India, contributing more than 2 billion tonnes of (Carbon dioxide equivalent) CO2e. The current market price of $6 USD per carbon credit (1 tonne of CO2e) from these plantations could generate an income of Rs. 1000 billion at intervals of 5-6 years. This additional income would benefit farmers engaged in agroforestry without compromising food security, as many tree species can be intercropped. The locally sourced timber could also strengthen the domestic timber and furniture industry, potentially reducing the annual import cost of Rs. 396 billion. The saved import duty could then be strategically invested in developing the domestic industry and establishing a suitable Minimum Support Price for domestically grown timber, safeguarding farmers from market fluctuations.

Since 2007, with the initiation of the Bali Action Plan (BAP), the focus on Reducing Emissions due to Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) intensified within the context of Land Use, Land Use Cover Change. The aim was to generate carbon credits from natural forests. In 2010, the Cancun decision on REDD+ was adopted to broaden the role of forests in mitigating climate change. This expansion included the conservation of forest carbon stocks, sustainable forest management, and the enhancement of forest carbon stocks. REDD+ was conceived as a voluntary and nationally driven mechanism, encouraging high income countries (Annex 1 of the UNFCCC) to compensate low and middle income countries (non-Annex 1 Parties to the UNFCCC) for reducing forest emissions.

While the UNFCCC is still working on launching REDD+ projects, Voluntary Carbon Markets have been actively experimenting with various methodologies to facilitate the generation of carbon credits by preventing deforestation and forest degradation. However, diverse regional focuses, priorities, and ecological conditions have presented challenges and limitations in implementing various methodologies and platforms for developing REDD+ projects. In Southeast Asia, rainforests are being converted into palm oil plantations or other types of commercial forestry, while the Amazonian forests face ongoing threats of deforestation. Efforts to counteract these drivers of deforestation are being addressed through the REDD+ concept. Countries like Brazil, Ecuador, Chile, Paraguay, Colombia, Argentina, Costa Rica, and Indonesia have seen substantial investments in REDD+ through diverse financial mechanisms. Additionally, countries such as Nepal and India have witnessed the initiation of pilot REDD+ projects.

The potential benefits of adopting REDD+ in India are diverse. India hosts four biodiversity hotspots: Western Ghats, Himalayas, Indo Burma, and Sunda Land. Despite this, Indian forests and biodiversity face the threat of degradation rather than deforestation. States such as Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Odisha, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh are crucial suppliers of medicinal plants, and the unsustainable harvesting of these species poses a serious risk of forest degradation. Such degradation not only impacts species populations but also leads to habitat fragmentation, loss of ecosystem services, and endangers local livelihoods. Areas facing these challenges present ideal cases for developing REDD+ projects, where targeted interventions can reverse degradation trajectories with verifiable targets, outputs, and outcomes.

The 2021 India State of Forest Report highlights a consistent decrease in Very Dense Forest (VDF) from 2007 to the present, coupled with a continued increase in Moderately Dense (MDF) and Open Forest Areas. The main drivers of this forest degradation are subsistence anthropogenic activities by over 300 million local residents primarily dependent on forests for firewood and grazing. While India actively manages illegal logging through robust forest governance policies and regulatory mechanisms, addressing forest degradation remains a top priority to conserve the biodiversity rich ecosystems and the services they provide.

Community based conservation, coexistence with wildlife, and self-regulation in the use of forest resources are integral aspects of Indian forest stories. With over 200,000 sacred groves covering approximately 2% of the country's forest area, these "Faith Forests" are biodiversity hotspots, especially in the Western Ghats and Himalayas. Urgent attention is needed to recognise and manage the distinct identity of these Sacred Groves, avoiding anthropogenic influences by incentivising local communities.

India launched Joint Forest Management (JFM) over 23 million hectares of forests in 2006, aiming for participatory forest management governed by communities. However, a lack of funding to support JFM micro plans across India has left local communities disappointed. In the same year, India introduced a landmark regulation recognising the rights of forest dwelling communities to traditionally occupied forest areas, benefiting over 300 million forest dwelling residents. More than 1 million hectares of Community Forest Reserve (CFR) areas have been acknowledged, with a potential for over 30 million hectares of forest area that could be managed as Community Forest Resource (CFR). Gram Sabhas are expected to develop management plans for their CFR areas, which they have traditionally managed for subsistence requirements.

The existing institutional mechanisms for community based forest conservation provide an ideal framework for the development of REDD+ projects. Carbon finance could significantly address the issue of insufficient funds for community based conservation, unlocking its full potential. India's natural forests, with an average productivity of about 0.8 tonnes/ha/yr, can sequester approximately 3 tonnes of CO2e/ha/yr in a Business As Usual (BAU) scenario. By addressing the drivers of degradation, carbon credits could be earned based on the enhanced carbon stock and degradation rate. Considering examples like Sacred groves (1 million ha), Joint Forest Management (JFM) areas (23 million ha), and Community Forest Rights (CFR) areas (11 million ha), there's an immediate potential of 35 million hectares of Indian natural forests to sequester 105 million tonnes of CO2e annually. Over a five year interval, community based conservation could generate over Rs. 40 billion through carbon credit trading, which can be reinvested in sustaining alternative livelihood activities and the conservation and enhancement of ecosystem services across India.

While India has submitted its National REDD+ Strategy, it is yet to develop a robust, monitorable social and environmental safeguard mechanism. It is crucial for India to present the broader picture of REDD+ to develop sub national level projects tailored to the country's needs and those of other developing nations.

The development of agroforestry could provide additional livelihood opportunities for over 70% of Indian farmers who are directly dependent on agriculture. These livelihood opportunities may arise from timber prices in new tree plantations, associated industrial development, and accrued carbon credits. Implementing REDD+ projects with local communities could create alternative livelihood opportunities for over 300 million forest dwellers. This approach positions Indian forest resources as a responsible global asset for sequestering additional CO2, aligning with the vision articulated by Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi as "Mission LiFe" to address climate change through the Indian lifestyle.

(The author is Senior Fellow, The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI). Feedback on this article can be sent to feedback.employmentnews@gmail.com).

Views expressed are personal.