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Editorial Articles


Issue no 30, 26 October - 01 November 2024

Evolution and Future of India- ASEAN Relations

Amid a Shifting Geopolitical Landscape

Sujeet Yadav

The recently concluded 21st ASEAN-India Summit in Vientiane, Laos, marked a significant milestone in India's foreign policy, with Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi unveiling a 10-point plan to bolster India-ASEAN relations. This announcement is a testament to India's evolving strategy, transitioning from merely "looking" east to actively "acting" east. This shift signals India's commitment to playing a more robust role in the Southeast Asian region, focussing on the four pillars of Culture, Connectivity, Commerce, and Capacity Building.

Act East Policy: A Decadal Reflection

As the Act East Policy (AEP) approaches its tenth anniversary, it is crucial to evaluate its trajectory and impact. Launched in 2014 as a successor to the Look East Policy (LEP), the AEP aimed to deepen India's engagement with Southeast Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific, enhancing relations across strategic, economic, and cultural domains.

The policy's evolution has seen India strengthen its diplomatic outreach and expand its geographical engagement significantly. Unlike the LEP, which primarily focussed on economic integration, the AEP under PM Modi encompasses security cooperation, regional connectivity, and institutional collaboration with ASEAN and East Asian nations. This broader approach reflects India's aspiration to enhance its strategic footprint in a region where geopolitical dynamics are rapidly shifting.

Key Milestones of the AEP: One of the most notable achievements of the AEP has been the elevation of India-ASEAN relations to a strategic partnership, formalised during the India-ASEAN Commemorative Summit in 2018. This partnership has resulted in heightened cooperation in various fields, including defence, trade, and cultural exchange. Since 2015, bilateral trade has nearly doubled, highlighting the increasing integration of India within the ASEAN economic framework. Moreover, India's foreign direct investment in ASEAN countries has surged, bolstering its diplomatic visibility across the region.

Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi's address in 2018 at the Shangri-La Dialogue marked India's formal entry into the Indo-Pacific discourse, where he articulated a vision centered on a free, open, and inclusive region. This vision underlines India's commitment to maritime security and positions it as a net security provider in the Indo-Pacific- a vital aspect of its defence diplomacy.

Challenges and Opportunities: Despite these advancements, the journey of the AEP is not without challenges. India's regional connectivity projects, such as the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway and the use of Chattogram and Mongla Ports in Bangladesh, have faced delays that hinder progress in integrating India's northeastern region with Southeast Asia. Enhancing maritime infrastructure along India's eastern seaboard will be critical in positioning India as a hub for maritime trade and security.

Economically, while India's trade with ASEAN has increased, it still falls short of its potential. Strengthening trade agreements and exploring digital economy partnerships, particularly in areas like fintech and e-commerce, can provide new avenues for collaboration and enhance India's economic engagement in the region.

Moreover, leveraging soft power through cultural and people-to-people ties remains an underutilised asset. The Indian diaspora, cultural exchanges, and educational collaborations can bridge gaps and strengthen political and economic ties within ASEAN countries.

How the 10-Point Action Plan Will Deepen India- ASEAN Connect?

Cultural Exchange and People-to-People Ties:  One of the key components of the action plan is the celebration of 2025 as the ASEAN-India Year of Tourism, which includes various people-centric activities like a Youth Summit and a Start-up Festival. By promoting tourism and cultural exchanges, India and ASEAN can strengthen their people-to-people connections, fostering mutual under-standing and collaboration. Increased interaction will likely lead to enhanced cultural ties, creating a shared sense of identity and community.

Enhanced Educational Opportunities:  The proposal to double scholarships at Nalanda University and introduce new scholarships for ASEAN students in Indian agricultural universities signifies a commitment to educational collaboration. This initiative will facilitate academic exchanges, research partnerships, and skill development, enabling students from both regions to benefit from diverse educational experiences. By nurturing a new generation of leaders equipped with cross- cultural competencies, India and ASEAN can cultivate deeper ties in various sectors.

Trade and Economic Cooperation: The action plan's emphasis on reviewing the ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement aims to enhance economic ties. Strengthening trade relations is crucial, given that India's trade with ASEAN has already nearly doubled in the past decade. By addressing barriers to trade and exploring new frameworks, India can enhance its economic engagement with ASEAN, creating a more dynamic and resilient economic partnership. This renewed focus on economic cooperation will not only stimulate growth but also reduce dependencies on other economies, particularly China.

Health Resilience Initiatives: The introduction of a new Health Ministers' track underscores a proactive approach to health cooperation, particularly in light of global health challenges. By collaborating on health resilience, both India and ASEAN can improve their responses to health emergencies, share best practices, and enhance public health infrastructure. This initiative can also pave the way for joint research and development in pharmaceuticals and healthcare technology, further solidifying ties.

Disaster Resilience and Climate Action: The allocation of resources for enhancing disaster resilience and the campaign to "Plant a Tree for Mother" reflect a shared commitment to environmental sustainability. Both regions face significant challenges related to climate change and natural disasters. By working together on disaster risk reduction and climate resilience initiatives, India and ASEAN can build a more robust framework for cooperation, enhancing their collective ability to respond to environmental challenges.

Cybersecurity and Digital Transformation: The establishment of an ASEAN-India Cyber Policy Dialogue signifies the importance of digital security in contemporary geopolitics. As both regions navigate the complexities of the digital economy, collaboration on cyber-security will be crucial. By sharing expertise and developing joint strategies to combat cyber threats, India and ASEAN can safeguard their digital infrastructures, enhancing trust and cooperation in the digital realm.

Maritime Security Collaboration: The joint commitment to strengthen maritime security aligns with India's vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific. By enhancing cooperation in this area, both India and ASEAN can ensure the safety of maritime routes, crucial for trade and economic stability. Collaborative efforts in areas like counter-terrorism and humanitarian assistance will further reinforce security ties and foster regional stability.

Innovative Partnerships in Emerging Technologies: The focus on emerging technologies, including AI and fintech, reflects the importance of innovation in modern economies. By establishing partnerships in these sectors, India and ASEAN can leverage their respective strengths to drive technological advancements. Collaborative initiatives can promote entrepreneurship and build a robust ecosystem for startups, facilitating economic growth and job creation in both regions.

India's Role in ASEAN amid Regional Tensions

As geopolitical tensions rise in Southeast Asia, India's role within ASEAN is becoming increasingly vital. During the 21st India- ASEAN Summit Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi displayed deft diplomacy as he articulated a clear and subtle message regarding India's stance amid escalating tensions between ASEAN nations and China. He emphasised that India and ASEAN are peace-loving nations that respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity. This message was particularly poignant in light of ongoing maritime disputes involving the Philippines, Vietnam, and other ASEAN members, who are grappling with China's growing military presence and territorial claims in the South China Sea. By positioning India as a staunch advocate for peace and cooperation, PM Modi not only reassured ASEAN leaders of India's support but also contrasted India's diplomatic approach with China's more aggressive posturing.

India's engagement with ASEAN has intensified over the years, particularly following the shift from the "Look East" policy to the "Act East" policy under PM Modi's leadership. This strategic pivot reflects India's intent to deepen its ties with Southeast Asia, focussing on both economic and security dimensions. For instance, the delivery of BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles to the Philippines-the first export of this advanced military technology-testifies to India's growing defence cooperation in the region. Such collaborations are crucial for ASEAN countries as they seek partners to bolster their defence capabilities.

At the summit, the joint statement issued underscored ASEAN's concerns about the South China Sea and reiterated the importance of adhering to international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). By supporting ASEAN's call for a swift conclusion to a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, India is reinforcing its role as a reliable partner in maintaining regional maritime security. This collective stance against unilateral actions in disputed waters not only strengthens India's diplomatic ties with ASEAN but also positions it as a leader in advocating for a rules-based order in the region.

While India's strategic and military partnerships with ASEAN have flourished, economic relations present both opportunities and challenges. Trade between India and ASEAN has doubled over the past decade, reaching over $130 billion. However, India faces a mounting trade deficit with the region, currently estimated at around $44 billion. This economic imbalance poses a significant hurdle that India must address to enhance its role further in Southeast Asia.

To solidify its influence, India must adopt a multi-faceted approach to trade, focussing on removing internal barriers and fostering bilateral cooperation. This involves not only enhancing trade agreements but also investing in regional supply chains and technological collaboration. By doing so, India can leverage ASEAN's economic dynamism-its collective GDP is approximately $4 trillion, slightly larger than India's $3.7 trillion-to create a more balanced and mutually beneficial relationship.

As great powers navigate a complex geopolitical landscape, India's standing in the region has been bolstered by its sustained economic growth and expanding military capabilities. The country's active participation in the Quad, alongside Australia, Japan, and the United States, has added a new dimension to its regional role, enabling it to engage more pro-actively in discussions about security and stability in Southeast Asia. PM Modi's firm opposition to unilateral actions in the South China Sea serves as a reminder of India's resolve to act as a stabilising force in a region fraught with uncertainties.

The ASEAN leaders' declaration imply that while the ASEAN members navigate challenges, these nations increasingly view India as a reliable hedging bet- an ally that respects their sovereignty and territorial rights while promoting a collaborative approach to regional security.

Hence, India is strategically positioning itself as a crucial partner for peace, stability, and economic growth within the ASEAN framework. By reaffirming its commitment to respect sovereignty, enhancing defence cooperation, and addressing economic challenges, India is not only solidifying its influence in the region but also contributing to the broader goal of ensuring that the "Asian Century" is characterised by collaboration, mutual respect, and shared prosperity.

 

The Road Ahead: 10-Point Action Plan

To advance the objectives of the Act East Policy (AEP) and to capitalise on existing opportunities while addressing challenges, Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi presented a 10-point action plan at the recent summit in Laos.

1. Celebrating 2025 as ASEAN-India Year of Tourism, with a commitment of $5 million for joint activities.

2. Initiating various people-centric events, including a Youth Summit and a Start-up Festival.

3. Organising an ASEAN-India Women Scientists Conclave to promote gender equality in science and technology.

4. Doubling scholarships at Nalanda University and providing new scholarships for ASEAN students in Indian agricultural universities.

5. Reviewing the ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement by 2025 to enhance trade dynamics.

6. Allocating $5 million to enhance disaster resilience.

7. Initiating a new track for Health Ministers to build health resilience.

8. Establishing a regular ASEAN-India Cyber Policy Dialogue for enhanced digital cooperation.

9. Conducting workshops on Green Hydrogen as part of climate initiatives.

10. Inviting ASEAN leaders to join the 'Plant a Tree for Mother' campaign for climate resilience.

 

Key Highlights: India-ASEAN Joint Statements And Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi's Address

·       The leaders emphasised the importance of maintaining and promoting peace, stability, maritime safety, and security in the region, highlighting their commitment to freedom of navigation and lawful maritime commerce.

·       The joint statement supported the full implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of the Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) and expressed the desire for an early conclusion of a substantive Code of Conduct (COC) in accordance with international law, particularly the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

·       India and ASEAN leaders agreed to strengthen cooperation in maritime security, counterterrorism, cybersecurity, military medicine, transnational crime, and humanitarian assistance. This includes joint military exercises, naval port calls, and defence scholarships.

·       The joint statements reflect a collective concern over China's territorial disputes in the South China Sea, particularly affecting ASEAN members like Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, amidst China's increasing assertiveness.

·       The leaders committed to promoting diverse, secure, and resilient supply chains while sharing information to proactively address potential risks in areas of mutual interest, thereby fostering sustainable development.

·       The statement highlighted cooperation in emerging technologies, including Artificial intelligence (AI), blockchain, the Internet of Things (IoT), robotics, quantum computing, and 6-G technology.

·       Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi unveiled a comprehensive 10-point plan aimed at deepening ties with ASEAN, which includes celebrating 2025 as the ASEAN-India Year of Tourism and planning several people-centric activities such as a youth summit and a startup festival.

·       The plan involves doubling scholarships at Nalanda University and introducing new scholarships for ASEAN students at agricultural universities in India.

·       The leaders called for a timely review of the ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA) by 2025 to harness greater economic potential, especially considering the significant growth in trade between India and ASEAN, which has nearly doubled to $130 billion over the last decade.

·       India committed to enhancing disaster resilience in the region by providing $5 million, reinforcing its role as a supportive partner in disaster management.

·       The joint statements called for the initiation of a regular ASEAN-India cyber policy dialogue to boost digital and cyber resilience.

·       The summit coincides with Exercise Malabar 24, involving the navies of India, the US, Australia, and Japan, emphasising the strategic importance of enhancing regional stability and security.

(The author is Delhi-based correspondent of an international multi-media platform. Feedback on this article can be sent to feedback. employmentnews@gmail.com).

Views expressed are personal.